AGP Executive Report

Oil & Industry: Aliko Dangote and Kenya’s William Ruto broke ground in Lamu on a $16bn, 700,000-bpd refinery, with construction expected to create about 60,000 jobs and support an integrated industrial complex. Regional Trade & Logistics: Hapag-Lloyd is expanding in Africa with new offices in Namibia (Walvis Bay) and a Kigali setup serving Rwanda and Burundi from Oct 1, aiming to bring closer customer support via Dar es Salaam links. Finance & Banking: Burundi is emerging as the fastest-growing market by assets for Kenyan bank subsidiaries, with KCB and DTB assets up nearly 30% in 2025. Migration Policy: Burundi agreed to accept US “third-country” deportees, but only those not accused of crimes or linked to terrorism, with authorities preparing accommodation and integration plans. Business & Trade Links: Tanzania and Burundi agreed to deepen cooperation across trade, investment, infrastructure, energy and security, including joint efforts against trafficking on Lake Tanganyika. Public Health & Consumer Safety: Uganda’s NDA warned against an illegal energy drink sold as imported from Burundi, saying lab tests found undeclared sildenafil.

Alamein Africa Forum: More than 20 African heads of state and business leaders are meeting in Egypt’s New Alamein City for the inaugural Alamein Africa Forum, aiming to link political decisions with trade and investment, with talks expected to cover infrastructure, critical minerals, digital innovation and health. Logistics & Trade: Hapag-Lloyd is expanding in Africa with new offices in Namibia (Walvis Bay) and a Kigali setup serving Rwanda and Burundi from October 1, 2026, to bring customer support closer to landlocked markets. Burundi-US Migration Deal: Burundi confirmed it will accept “third-country” deportees from the US, but only those not accused of crimes or linked to terrorism, with authorities preparing accommodation and community integration. Banking Growth: Burundi is emerging as a fast-growing market by assets for Kenyan bank subsidiaries, with KCB and DTB assets up nearly 30% in 2025. Public Services Pressure: In Bujumbura, national identity cards remain hard to get, with delays blamed on shortages of cards and delivery resources. Business & Compliance: Court rejects ARA’s bid to forfeit about KSh35.4m in an EIS Afrika case, saying the state failed to link the funds to criminal activity. Energy & Health: Uganda’s health workforce export rules are shifting after WHO removed it from severe shortage status, while Burundi-linked reports also highlight risks from an illegal sildenafil-tainted energy drink in Uganda.

Banking & Finance: Burundi is emerging as the fastest-growing market by assets for Kenyan bank subsidiaries, with KCB and DTB assets up nearly 30% in 2025 and Kenyan banks in the DRC crossing Sh1 trillion in assets. Shipping & Trade: Hapag-Lloyd is expanding in Africa with new offices in Namibia, and a Kigali setup to serve Rwanda and Burundi from Oct 1, 2026, boosting regional connectivity for landlocked markets. Logistics & Investment: Guala Closures has completed its acquisition of Metal Crowns across Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi for about Kes 10.6bn, strengthening beverage packaging capacity in East Africa. Regional Infrastructure: Kenya and Tanzania deepen trade links as Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam port speeds up vessel handling and records rising cargo volumes, reinforcing the Indian Ocean gateway role. US-Burundi Migration Deal: Burundi agreed to accept US “third-country” deportees only if they are not accused of crimes or linked to terrorism, with authorities preparing accommodation and integration plans. Energy & Industry: East Africa’s $16bn Dangote refinery breaks ground in Lamu, targeting 700,000 barrels per day and up to 60,000 jobs, with regional leaders backing the push for local refining.

US–Burundi Migration Deal: Burundi agreed to receive “third-country” deportees from the U.S., but only those with no crime or terrorism links; officials say they’re preparing accommodation and community integration, with no numbers or financial terms disclosed. Oil & Industry Push: Five African heads of state joined Kenya’s William Ruto and Dangote to break ground on a $16bn, 700,000-bpd Lamu refinery aimed at boosting local processing and jobs, though land protests and court challenges have surfaced. Regional Trade & Logistics: HMM will launch a Mombasa–India container service with a 2,500 TEU vessel, while South Sudan urged Kenya to cut costly customs bond fees and delays that burden traders. Business Expansion: Guala Closures completed its acquisition of Metal Crowns across Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi for about KES 10.6bn, expanding beverage packaging capacity in East Africa. Local Governance & Rights: Bujumbura reports scarce national identity cards and police assault allegations against an Isanganiro journalist, while Rumonge schools struggle with desk and bench shortages. Finance & Compliance: Kenya’s Court of Appeal rejected ARA’s bid to forfeit about KSh35m in the EIS Afrika case, citing insufficient link to criminal activity.

Migration & Immigration Policy: Burundi agreed to receive “third-country” deportees from the US under President Donald Trump’s hardline policy, but only those with no criminal record or terrorism links; officials say Bujumbura is preparing housing, food and community integration, while the US gave no numbers, timing or financial terms. Energy & Industry: East Africa’s push for refining capacity got a major boost as five African heads of state joined Kenya’s William Ruto and Dangote to break ground on a $16bn, 700,000-bpd Lamu refinery, expected to create about 60,000 jobs and include power and downstream industrial units. Governance & Business Environment: In Bujumbura, citizens report national identity cards are scarce and delays can reach two weeks, disrupting daily life and business activity tied to police checks. Media & Public Safety: An Isanganiro journalist alleges he was assaulted and beaten by police in Bujumbura, raising fresh concerns over enforcement and press freedom. Education & Local Economy: In Rumonge, shortages of desks and benches mean pupils share benches and some classes run in churches, threatening learning and school-linked household spending. Regional Trade & Investment: Tanzania and Burundi began a joint commission meeting in Bujumbura to review cooperation on trade, transport, energy, minerals and investment. Finance & Legal Risk: Kenya’s Court of Appeal rejected an ARA bid to forfeit about KSh35m tied to EIS Afrika’s cross-border project funds, leaving the dispute unresolved in court.

Oil & Industry: Five African heads of state joined Kenya’s William Ruto to break ground on Dangote’s $16bn Lamu refinery, targeting 700,000 barrels per day and about 60,000 jobs, with engineering and process contracts already going to firms like India’s EIL and Honeywell. Land & Courts: The project also faces legal and street pressure over land acquisition and compensation, with residents in Lamu challenging forced displacement and court orders affecting construction timelines. Burundi Migration Policy: Burundi agreed to receive “third-country” US deportees, but only those without criminal or terrorism links, with Bujumbura saying it is preparing housing and integration plans. Regional Trade & Transport: Tanzania and Burundi launched a joint commission meeting in Bujumbura to review cooperation on trade, investment, transport, agriculture, energy and minerals. Banking Expansion: NCBA Group signaled it is moving toward acquisitions in the DRC and Ethiopia as it expands beyond its current East African footprint. EAC Business Climate: A separate report flags East Africa’s digital commerce growth running into a trust problem—identity, fraud and seller verification are becoming key battlegrounds.

Transport Disruption: Upcountry bus and lorry drivers in Tanzania went on strike on Sept 29, protesting traffic penalty points, licence suspensions, poor roads and the Vehicle Tracking System, stranding hundreds of passengers in Dar es Salaam and other regions. Bilateral Trade & Investment: Burundi and Tanzania opened a two-day Joint Permanent Commission meeting in Bujumbura (Sept 29–30) to review cooperation and push new deals across trade, transport, agriculture, energy, minerals and more. Energy & Industry: Kenya’s Lamu prepares for the East African Oil Refinery ground-breaking, a roughly $16bn (about Sh2tn) project targeting 700,000 barrels/day and wider regional fuel supply, jobs and industrial spin-offs. Business Regulation: Burundi suspended production and sale of several high-alcohol beverage categories, ordering withdrawal from the market and warning of sanctions for non-compliance. Digital & Youth Protection: A UN panel in New York called for stronger international rules to protect children from online risks as AI expands. Local Economy & Jobs: Burundi’s cassava-leaf “isombe” trade shows how women’s associations are turning food processing into daily income and more stable household earnings.

El Niño Watch: The Horn of Africa is heading into late-2026 with a strengthening El Niño that could bring wetter conditions in some areas, but also higher risks of flooding, landslides, crop damage and disease—so forecasts must be turned into local action. Nile Politics & Power: Ethiopia has inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, underscoring how mega-infrastructure is tied to sovereignty and regional leverage. Ebola Preparedness: The UAE pledged US$10m to help contain Ebola as Kenya boosts surveillance and border readiness. Burundi Trade & Regulation: Burundi’s government suspended production and sale of certain high-alcohol beverages, ordering removal from the market and warning of sanctions. CNL Court Battle: Agathon Rwasa and former CNL bureau members challenge a Supreme Court ruling and seek to restart their fight over party control. East Africa Energy Push: Kenya is set to ground-break the Sh2tn East African Oil Refinery at Lamu, aiming to cut fuel imports and create jobs across the region. Agribusiness Prices: Kenya’s tea auction saw smallholder factories earn Sh919.6m, with demand supported by El Niño-linked expectations. Regional Markets & Currency: EAC inflation eased sharply in June, while Burundi-linked business watchers also track currency stress across the region. Digital & Child Safety: A UN panel in New York called for stronger standards to protect children from online risks as AI expands.

Alcohol Crackdown: Burundi’s Ministry of Trade has suspended the production and sale of several high-alcohol beverages, ordering affected products withdrawn nationwide and warning of severe sanctions for non-compliance. Energy & Industry: Kenya’s Lamu Port is receiving major equipment for the Sh2 trillion Dangote-led East African Oil Refinery, with commissioning set for Sept 30 and the project targeting major fuel supply and job creation across the region including Burundi. Digital Child Safety: At the UN General Assembly high-level week, Türkiye hosted a panel urging stronger international standards and shared responsibility to protect children from online risks as AI accelerates. CNL Political Fight: Agathon Rwasa and former CNL bureau members challenge a Supreme Court ruling, reigniting the battle over party control after disputes tied to the March 2024 congress. Water Shortage: Muyinga and Kirundo are facing worsening drinking water shortages, with taps running dry and hospitals affected, raising hygiene and health concerns. Agrifood Funding: Burundi joined other African states increasing pledges to IFAD, signaling renewed focus on rural transformation amid energy, climate and conflict pressures.

Burundi Politics: Agathon Rwasa and former CNL bureau members have appealed a Supreme Court ruling tied to the legality of the party’s March 2024 congress, reigniting the fight over CNL control. Water & Local Economy: Muyinga and Kirundo are hit by drinking-water shortages, with taps running dry and even hospitals facing multi-day outages—raising hygiene and business disruption risks. Regional Trade & Integration: Botswana was commended for backing the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Area, with Burundi among the ratifying states pushing for lower barriers and harmonised trade rules. East Africa Energy Push: Kenya’s Lamu Port received major onshore drilling equipment for the Lokichar oil project, while the $16bn Dangote East African Oil Refinery is set for commissioning—positioning the coast as a regional petroleum hub. Agribusiness Funding: Ten African countries, including Burundi, increased pledges to IFAD for 2028–2030, targeting rural transformation amid energy, climate and conflict shocks. Tech & Skills: A Burundi-Cameroon webinar spotlighted how limited infrastructure, financing and policy gaps are holding back tech entrepreneurship and digital transformation.

Lamu Refinery Push: MV Da Yang Bai He docked at Lamu Port with construction materials for Dangote’s $16bn East African Oil Refinery, a project Kenya says will cut fuel import dependence and position the country as a regional processing hub; President Ruto is set to ground-break the refinery on Wednesday, with Dangote also offering a 1,000MW power plant (500MW for Kenya). Regional Trade & Integration: Botswana was praised for backing the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Area, aimed at harmonising policies and removing non-tariff barriers—an effort Burundi and other partners are also supporting. EAC Inflation Watch: East African Community headline inflation fell sharply in June to 7.8% (from 22.7% a year earlier), but core and food inflation rose, keeping pressure on prices. Burundi Water Stress: Muyinga and Kirundo reported worsening drinking-water shortages, with taps running dry for days and hygiene concerns rising. Agrifood Funding Signal: Burundi joined other African states increasing pledges to IFAD for 2028-2030, backing rural transformation amid energy, climate and conflict shocks. Burundi Fertilizer Friction: Farmers in Ruyigi say they’ve gone three seasons without chemical fertilizers, blaming delays and mistrust around new beneficiary registration. Tech Ecosystem Talk: A webinar focused on stimulating Burundi’s and Cameroon’s tech sectors, highlighting gaps in infrastructure, financing and digital policy coordination.

Regional Trade Integration: Botswana was praised for pushing the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Area, with Burundi among countries that have ratified to help cut non-tariff barriers. Rail & Cross-Border Logistics: Kenya’s President William Ruto says SGR will extend from Voi toward Tanzania, with about Sh5bn set aside, aiming to boost trade and jobs along the Coast. EAC Inflation Watch: East African Community headline inflation fell sharply to 7.8% in June, but core and food prices kept rising, signaling pressure still building. Energy & Food Security Funding: The AfDB unveiled a USD5bn emergency buffer to contain energy and fertilizer shocks, with Burundi listed among high-vulnerability countries. Burundi Business Disruptions: Rumonge faces severe power cuts hitting welders, mills, salons, offices and banks, while Muyinga and Kirundo report drinking-water shortages affecting hospitals and hotels. Agriculture Support: Burundi joined other African states increasing pledges to IFAD, targeting rural transformation amid climate and conflict stress. Trade Flows Despite Tensions: Burundi is importing growing amounts of goods from Rwanda even after the border closure, showing commerce continues under strained politics.

Dangote Refinery Logistics: The first caller vessel for Aliko Dangote’s Sh2.2trn Lamu refinery project docked at Lamu Port, bringing construction materials and underscoring Kenya’s growing ability to handle mega-ships. Power Deal Watch: Dangote also offered a 1,000MW power plant at Lamu with 500MW for Kenya, aiming to secure baseload electricity for the refinery and the Lamu special economic zone. EAC Inflation: East African Community headline inflation fell sharply in June to 7.8% (from 22.7% a year earlier), but core and food inflation rose, keeping pressure on prices. Burundi Water Stress: Muyinga and Kirundo are facing worsening drinking-water shortages, with taps running dry for days and hygiene risks rising. Fertilizer Frustration in Ruyigi: Farmers in Ruyigi report three seasons without chemical fertilizers, blaming delays and mistrust after registration processes. Trade Link Despite Tensions: Burundi is importing growing amounts of Rwandan goods even after border closure, with Rwanda’s exports to Burundi more than doubling year-on-year. Agrifood Funding Push: Ten African countries, including Burundi, pledged more to IFAD to accelerate rural transformation amid energy, climate and conflict shocks. EAC Integration Process: South Sudan has started public consultations on the EAC Political Confederation constitution, joining Burundi, Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda.

Cyber & Health Security: The U.S. Embassy in Nairobi issued an advisory after a suspected data breach tied to Ebola screening at Kenyan ports of entry, potentially exposing travellers’ names, passport numbers and health details since late May. Energy & Food Security Finance: The AfDB approved a one-year USD5.1bn emergency framework to cushion Middle East-driven shocks to energy and fertilizer supply, listing Burundi among 25 high-vulnerability countries. Agribusiness & Trade: Burundi is linked to rising regional agrifood funding as 10 African countries, including Burundi, pledged nearly US$9m to IFAD for rural transformation (2028-2030). Regional Logistics & Markets: Burundi’s trade with Rwanda is reportedly growing even after the border closure, highlighting how commerce keeps moving despite political tensions. Power Crunch in Business: Rumonge’s repeated power cuts are paralyzing local firms and schools, with businesses struggling to run on costly generators amid fuel shortages. Fertilizer Shortfall: In Ruyigi, farmers complain of three seasons without chemical fertilizers, blaming delays and mistrust around beneficiary registration. Horticulture Push: Eastern African horticulture players launched the Horticulture Council of Eastern Africa to cut trade barriers and improve cold-chain and logistics, with Burundi included. EAC Integration: South Sudan has started public consultations on the EAC Political Confederation, joining Burundi, Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda.

Agrifood Finance: Ten African countries, including Burundi, announced higher pledges to IFAD during UNGA81, targeting nearly US$9m for rural transformation under IFAD14 (2028-2030), as energy, climate and conflict shocks squeeze small farmers. Regional Trade & Industry: The EAC reported trade hitting $52.3bn (Sh6.81tn) in Q2 2026, with Kenya leading exports, while Afreximbank issued a US$29m guarantee to scale the EAC Customs Bond to ease movement of goods. Horticulture Push: Nine Eastern African countries launched the Horticulture Council of Eastern Africa (HoCEA), including Burundi, aiming to cut trade barriers, improve logistics and cold chains, and tackle post-harvest losses. Power & Business Disruption: In Rumonge, repeated power cuts are paralyzing firms and schools, with electricity reportedly available only 1–2 hours daily and generator use hit by fuel shortages. Fertilizer Shortfall: In Ruyigi, farmers report three seasons without chemical fertilizers, blaming delays and mistrust around beneficiary registration. Education Strain: In Kayanza, the school year starts amid a teacher shortage and unpaid salaries, with only 147 of 380 requested new teachers assigned. Cross-Border Commerce: Despite the Burundi-Rwanda land border closure, Burundi is still importing growing volumes of Rwandan goods, with Q2 2026 exports to Burundi rising to US$13.39m.

EAC Trade Surge: The East African Community recorded $52.3bn (Sh6.81tn) in total trade in Q2 2026, up 37% year-on-year, with Kenya keeping its lead as exports rose 41.3% to $26.3bn. Regional Finance for Trade: Afreximbank issued a $29m guarantee to scale the EAC Customs Bond via BSMART Technology, aiming to speed up cross-border movement of goods through a more digital customs process. Horticulture Push: Nine Eastern African countries launched the Horticulture Council of Eastern Africa (HoCEA) to cut trade barriers, improve logistics and cold chains, and tackle high post-harvest losses. Burundi-Rwanda Commerce Despite Border: Burundi is still importing large volumes of Rwandan goods even after the land border closure, with Rwanda exports to Burundi rising to $13.39m in Q2 2026. Power Cuts Hit Local Economy: In Rumonge, repeated electricity outages are disrupting businesses and schools, with some banks and microfinance forced to rely on costly generators amid fuel shortages. Farming Inputs Shortfall: In Ruyigi, farmers report three seasons without chemical fertilizers, blaming delays and mistrust around beneficiary registration. Education Strain: Kayanza schools start the year with a teacher gap—only 147 of 380 requested new teachers were assigned, while some recruits from Nov 2025 still await salaries. Vehicle Financing Deal (Kenya): NCBA Group signed with Transafrica Motors to finance FAW commercial vehicles for SMEs and fleets, offering up to 90% funding and up to 60-month repayment terms. Health Funding Boost: UNFPA and partners pledged over $715m for reproductive health at UNGA81, including commitments from Burundi and other countries.