AGP Executive Report

Fuel Shock Hits East Africa: Kenya’s nationwide transport strike over rising fuel prices has paralysed Nairobi, with tear gas, burning tyres and schools shutting as commuters walk long distances—another reminder that global oil disruptions are quickly turning into local cost-of-living pain. Regional Trade Pressure: Businesses and traders warn the diesel jump will ripple through transport, food and production costs across the region. Burundi Health Watch: In Bujumbura, cholera has reappeared in Buyenzi (Swahili), prompting stepped-up sanitation efforts amid ongoing water shortages. Food Prices Bite: Bean prices in Bujumbura have surged in a week, pushing some varieties near unaffordability for many households. Governance & Rights: Burundi’s biometric ID rollout faces practical hurdles like unreliable electricity and weak internet, while journalists in Burunga report repeated exclusions from public political events. DRC Frontline Shift: In eastern DRC, M23 has pulled back from the Rusizi Plain, but residents say calm may not mean lasting peace.

CRDB Leadership Tenure Debate: CRDB Bank shareholders in Arusha are pushing to keep CEO Abdulmajid Nsekela in office beyond his legally capped 10-year term, pointing to a sharp rise in share price (about Sh95 in 2018 to around Sh3,000 by April 2026), stronger profitability, and a bigger dividend payout (Sh235.1bn approved for 2025 results). Human Rights Spotlight: Ruben Vardanyan, jailed in Azerbaijan, has been nominated for the 2026 Václav Havel Human Rights Prize by international rights defenders. Coffee Supply Chain Push: Coffee sector leaders launched the Coffee Canopy Partnership, starting with an East Africa pilot (including Burundi) to map coffee farms and target deforestation risks. Public Health Alert: Cholera has reappeared in Bujumbura’s Buyenzi/Swahili neighborhood, prompting renewed sanitation measures as water shortages raise fears of spread. Food Prices Pressure: Bean prices in Bujumbura jumped fast, with some varieties nearing 6,500 BIF per kg, squeezing household budgets.

AfCON Qualifiers: The D-day draw for AfCON PAMOJA 2027 group qualifiers is set for Tuesday in Cairo, with 48 teams split into 12 groups and hosts Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda already guaranteed places. Regional Tech Push: IUCEA has launched the East African Community Artificial Intelligence Alliance in Kigali, aiming to stop AI efforts from staying trapped inside national borders by pooling research and education across the EAC. Health Workforce Boost: Merck Foundation marked World Hypertension Day 2026 by rolling out nearly 1,000 scholarships for future cardiovascular, diabetes and endocrinology specialists across 52 countries. Burundi Public Health: Cholera has reappeared in Bujumbura’s Buyenzi (Swahili) neighborhood, prompting tighter sanitation measures amid drinking-water shortages. Food Pressure: Bean prices in Bujumbura have surged sharply in a week, pushing households to cut consumption. Identity System Worries: Burundi’s biometric ID card plan faces delays risk from weak electricity and internet coverage in many areas.

AfCON PAMOJA 2027 Draw: The D-Day for group qualifiers is set for Tuesday, May 18 in Cairo, with 48 teams to be split into 12 groups of four and only the top two per group advancing—while Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda already have host spots, meaning just one extra team from each host group can qualify. Health & Education: Merck Foundation marked World Hypertension Day 2026 by funding nearly 1,000 scholarships for future cardiovascular, diabetes and endocrinology specialists across 52 countries. Cholera Watch in Bujumbura: Cholera has reappeared in Buyenzi (Swahili area) with four cases, as authorities push sanitation measures amid ongoing drinking-water shortages. Healthcare System Strain: In Butanyerera, patients with health insurance cards complain of medication shortages and alleged discrimination by partner pharmacies. Food Pressure: Bean prices in Bujumbura are spiking fast, with some varieties reportedly nearing 6,500–6,000 francs per kg, worrying households already hit by the long fuel crisis. Regional Trade Move: Russia’s FESCO completed its first direct container shipment to Dar es Salaam, aiming to deepen Africa trade links.

Cholera Returns in Bujumbura: Four cholera cases have been reported in Buyenzi’s Swahili neighborhood, prompting authorities to tighten sanitation—while residents warn the city still struggles with drinking water and dirty gutters. Healthcare Under Strain: In Butanyerera, patients with health insurance cards say key medicines are missing in public and partner pharmacies, pushing them to pay cash and accusing some outlets of hoarding the best drugs. Refugee Aid Under Review: Rwanda’s UNHCR, WFP and MINEMA have started a household-by-household assessment in Mahama camp after protests over how food and cash targeting works. Identity System Faces Reality Check: Burundi’s planned biometric national ID card is still far from smooth rollout, with electricity and internet gaps likely to slow registration and digital issuance. Food Prices Bite: Bean prices in Bujumbura have surged sharply, worrying households already squeezed by the wider cost-of-living pressure. Regional Trade Watch: Russia’s FESCO says it has launched its first direct container shipment to Dar es Salaam, using a new corridor via India—another sign of intensifying Africa logistics competition.

Trade & Logistics: Russia’s FESCO has completed its first direct container shipment to Dar es Salaam, cutting a new corridor that took cargo from Novorossiysk via India’s Nhava Sheva in about 45 days—another push to deepen Africa trade links. Fuel & Cost of Living: In Kenya, diesel prices jumped by Sh46.29 to Sh242.92, and business lobbies warn the hike will ripple through transport, farming, manufacturing and household costs; the shilling also slipped slightly after the fuel shock. Regional Security: Eastern DRC saw a fragile calm as M23 fighters pulled back from the Rusizi Plain toward Katogota, but civilians remain wary as fighting patterns shift. Burundi Watch: Bean prices in Bujumbura surged by 1,500–2,000 francs per kg in a week, while Burundi’s biometric ID rollout is still held back by electricity and internet gaps; separate reports also flag alleged abuses involving FDNB officers and continued media access restrictions in Burunga. Health: UNAIDS warns HIV prevention and treatment services are faltering as funding declines, with Burundi hit hard on uptake.

Fuel Shock in the Region: Trade lobbies are warning that Kenya’s latest diesel and petrol jump will push up transport and production costs, raising the cost of living for households and squeezing businesses already hit by high prices. EAC Pressure on Costs: The KNCCI says diesel rose faster than global crude, pointing to domestic taxes and other local cost build-ups—while the wider region is also being urged to remove non-tariff roadblocks that keep goods stuck at borders. Burundi Identity & Prices: Burundi’s biometric ID card rollout is still far from reality due to electricity and internet gaps, as Bujumbura households feel the squeeze from soaring bean prices and longer-term fuel-related food inflation. DRC Frontline Shifts: In eastern DRC, M23 fighters have pulled back from the Rusizi Plain, bringing a fragile calm in places like Sange, but civilians remain wary. Humanitarian Strain: Refugees in Burundi and Uganda report rising market prices during WFP distributions, cutting the real value of aid.

Financial Sector Push: Tanzania’s finance minister hailed CRDB’s growth and investor confidence, urging banks to widen access to formal services for millions still outside the system. EAC Digital Leap: East Africa formally launched an AI alliance in Kigali, aiming to pool talent, infrastructure and research impact beyond isolated national pilots. Aviation Upgrade: Kenya’s KCAA says JKIA runway and terminal expansion tendering is in the final stages, promising higher throughput after congestion-era repairs. DRC Frontline Shift: In eastern DRC, M23 fighters pulled back from the Rusizi Plain and repositioned toward Katogota, while soldiers returned to Sange—relief for residents, but peace remains fragile. Burundi Identity & Rights: Burundi’s biometric ID card is still far from reality due to electricity and internet gaps, and Burunga journalists report repeated exclusions at ruling-party events. Food Pressure: Soaring bean prices in Bujumbura are biting households, with WFP distribution days also linked to higher local prices in Musenyi camp. Security Abuses: Burundi’s FDNB officers face scrutiny in cases of alleged kidnapping, torture and attempted rape.

HIV Funding Crunch: UNAIDS warns the HIV response is “collapsing” as donor money drops, leaving 9.3 million people still waiting for treatment; Burundi’s prevention uptake fell 64% and Uganda’s PrEP use dropped 31% between Dec 2024 and Sept 2025. Eastern DRC Front Shifts: Rwandan-backed M23 has pulled out from parts of the Ruzizi Plain near Uvira, bringing a brief lull in places like Sange—but peace is still not guaranteed. Somalia Political Standoff: Talks between Somalia’s government and opposition are set ahead of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term extension taking effect May 15, with failed talks raising clash risks. Press Freedom Watch: RSF’s 2026 World Press Freedom Index shows declines in 100 of 180 countries. Burundi in the Spotlight: The week also includes a major regional legal story tied to Burundian asylum seekers abroad, plus local attention after singer Kidum’s road accident.

Eastern DRC Calm, for Now: M23 rebels have pulled out of Sange and nearby areas north of Uvira, and DRC army trucks have moved back in—bringing relief to residents, but uncertainty remains as hostilities can shift town to town. South Africa Asylum Clampdown: South Africa’s Constitutional Court has ruled that rejected asylum seekers can’t file repeat applications, ending a “never-ending cycle” and tightening the path to deportations. Lake Victoria Oxygen Crisis: New basin findings warn that nearly 40% of the lakebed lacks enough oxygen, squeezing fish breeding and livelihoods across Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi. Uganda Oil Turning Point: Uganda says “first oil” momentum is building, with technical commissioning expected soon and crude still facing a longer run to reach Tanga. Burundi in the Wider Region: Burundi-linked stories this week include the South Africa asylum case and a UN leadership race where Burundi is noted as backing one candidate. Trade & Governance: EAC officials push to remove roadblocks and levies hurting intra-regional cargo, while an East Africa procurement forum in Juba targets better transparency and beneficial ownership disclosure.

Regional Tech Push: The Inter-University Council for East Africa (IUCEA) has formally launched the East African Community Artificial Intelligence Alliance, with a flagship network focused on AI in education and research, aiming to bring governments, universities, industry and partners under one regional framework to scale up AI across the eight EAC states. DRC Security Pressure: Kenya’s President William Ruto says instability in eastern DR Congo is still “volatile” even after the withdrawal of the EAC regional force, arguing Kenya “spent resources” and that diplomatic deals have not yet translated into safety on the ground. Burundi Justice & Rights: South Africa’s Constitutional Court has barred asylum seekers whose applications were finally rejected from submitting fresh asylum bids—an outcome tied to a case involving two Burundians. EAC Trade Friction: Uganda and Kenya urged South Sudan and Tanzania to remove roadblocks and levies hitting EAC cargo trucks as non-tariff barriers remain a drag on intra-regional trade.

EAC Trade Push: Uganda and Kenya are pressing South Sudan and Tanzania to remove roadblocks, levies and other non-tariff barriers that keep cargo trucks stuck inside the bloc, with the goal of clearing documented restrictions by end-June 2026. Burundi Refugee Policy: Burundi and UNHCR have kicked off a voluntary return push for Congolese refugees, stressing “no forced returns” while warning of shortages at sites like Busuma. Regional Procurement Watch: The East African Procurement Forum opened in Juba, aiming to tighten transparency and beneficial-ownership disclosure in public buying across EAC states, including Burundi. DRC Security Spillover: Eastern DRC remains volatile as reports link drone strikes to civilian deaths near Mushaki market in North Kivu, underscoring how conflict shocks can quickly hit livelihoods and cross-border movement. Press Freedom: RSF’s 2026 World Press Freedom Index flags a broad decline—100 of 180 countries saw worse conditions for journalism.

Asylum Ruling: South Africa’s Constitutional Court says asylum seekers whose first bids were rejected on a final basis cannot submit fresh applications—an outcome that Home Affairs is using to block repeat cases, including those brought by two Burundians who had argued they were “sur place” refugees. Regional Trade Pressure: Uganda and Kenya urged South Sudan and Tanzania to remove roadblocks and levies hitting EAC traders, as the bloc pushes to clear non-tariff barriers by end-June 2026. Procurement Transparency: The East African Procurement Forum opened in Juba, with Burundi among participants, focusing on beneficial-ownership disclosure to cut corruption risks. Burundi Displacement Update: Burundi and UNHCR kicked off a voluntary return push for Congolese refugees, stressing it is optional. Energy & Jobs Angle: AfDB approved a $11.3m renewable-energy certificate pilot targeting frontier markets including Burundi, aiming to expand mini-grid power and connections. Diplomacy Watch: The Africa–France summit begins in Nairobi, with Burundi’s AU chair role in the spotlight.

EAC Trade Pressure: Uganda and Kenya urged South Sudan and Tanzania to remove roadblocks, levies and other non-tariff barriers hitting EAC cargo, after a Kampala meeting flagged 27 documented NTBs that keep intra-regional trade stuck. Burundi Courts & Rights: South Africa’s Constitutional Court backed Home Affairs in a case blocking rejected asylum seekers from submitting fresh applications, a ruling that could tighten how Burundians pursue protection. Africa–France Summit: Leaders opened the Africa–France summit in Nairobi, with Burundi’s AU chair role highlighted as talks focus on trade, investment and sustainable financing. Health Funding Shock: USAID’s exit spotlighted how donor-funded health programmes across Africa are fragile, with experts calling for governments to take stronger ownership of financing. Eastern DRC Security: Civilians were reported killed in drone attacks near Mushaki market in North Kivu, underscoring the protection gap as MONUSCO’s footprint shrinks. Burundi Economy: Bean prices in Bujumbura jumped sharply, adding pressure to already strained household budgets.

EAC Security Drill: Senior defense officials from all seven EAC states (including Burundi) are in Nairobi for the Ushirikiano Imara 2026 command post exercise, with leaders urging tighter unity and joint response as conflicts abroad keep spilling into regional economies and stability. EAC–France Power Play: As France hosts the Africa Forward Summit in Kenya, Burundi-linked debate is heating up around the push to make French an EAC official language—critics say it’s a geopolitical move, not just a policy tweak. DRC Frontline Spillover: In eastern DRC, reports say drone strikes near Mushaki market in Masisi killed at least ten civilians, underscoring how the M23-linked conflict keeps drawing in wider regional tensions. Burundi Humanitarian & Rights: Burundi and UNHCR kick off a voluntary return program for Congolese refugees, while local media rights and justice concerns persist, including complaints that are hard to file in western areas. Food Pressure at Home: Bean prices in Bujumbura jumped sharply in a week, pushing households to cut consumption.

Tanzania SGR Momentum: Tanzania’s Standard Gauge Railway is winning investor confidence after a syndicated financing of over USD 2.33bn for SGR Lots 3–5, backing about 430km (Makutupora–Isaka) and 249km (Isaka–Mwanza), with the full line expected to link Dar es Salaam to Mwanza and cut logistics costs. Africa-France Reset: France kicks off the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi with Kenya, aiming to shift influence toward anglophone partners; security, investment and green energy are on the agenda, with EAC language politics also stirring debate. Burundi Trade & Food Pressure: In Bujumbura, bean prices have surged sharply in a week, pushing households to cut consumption. DRC Spillover: Eastern Congo remains volatile, with reports of civilians killed in drone strikes near Mushaki market. Burundi Refugees: Burundi and UNHCR start a voluntary return push for Congolese refugees, stressing it’s optional. Energy Finance: AfDB backs an $11.3m renewable-energy facility using renewable energy certificates, with Burundi among targeted frontier markets.